Golf and Loss Aversion

Hazards of Egyptian golf

There's a really interesting article on Aussie Golfer about why golfers sink more par putts than birdie putts, when the putts are the same length.
(Aussie Golfer has consistently great golf blogs.)
Here's an extract from the Aussie Golfer article.

Israeli psychologist Daniel Kahneman released a book late last year called "Thinking, Fast and Slow" that outlines the problems with human reasoning. In the book he hints at why golfers miss many more birdie putts than par putts of the same length.
In the book (that has spent a considerable amount of time on the New York Times best sellers list) he cites a study published in 2009 by Pope and Schweitzer that looked at 2,525,161 putts attempted by 421 PGA tour players between 2004 and 2009. The results showed a significant increase in putts made for par than for birdie.
"When golfers are “under par” (e.g., shoot a “birdie” putt that would earn them a score one stroke under par or shoot an “eagle” putt that would earn them a score two strokes under par) they are significantly less accurate than when they attempt otherwise similar putts for par or are “over par”."
The reason expanded upon in Kahneman's book is that we are hard wired to worry more about loss than gain, and the performance (or in this case, the putting) gets better when you are trying to avoid failure. This, despite the fact that a birdie putt or a par putt are of equal value and are only differentiated because of the par assigned for the hole.
"Pope and Schweitzer theorized that players would try a little harder when putting for par to avoid a bogey than when putting for a birdie. They analyzed over 2.5 million puts in exquisite detail to test that prediction. They were right. Whether the putt was easy or hard, every distance from the hole, players were more successful putting for par than for a birdie.
The study looked at professional golfers but I'd be inclined to think a similar result may also be seen for amateur golfers with club handicaps who are putting for par equivalent or less on a hole.

It's a beautiful day here on the Kapiti Coast so when I play golf this afternoon, I'm going to change my thoughts when I'm standing over a birdie putt. Instead of "Good Lord, I've hit a hole in regulation! Birdie would be nice but 2 putts will still give me par" it'll be "I want birdie".


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